Let’s Make a Deal
Let’s say you were on “Let’s Make a Deal”. You are playing a game where there are 3 doors. Behind 1 of the doors is $1,000,000. Behind each of the other 2 doors is a bag of trash. Your task is to pick one door to try to select the door with the prize. After you select your door, the host says he’s going to open one of the remaining 2 doors. Since the host always knows which door has the winning prize, he opens a door that reveals a bag of trash. He now asks you if you’d like to switch your choice to the other unopened door. What is your response? Before you read on, make sure you think about your answer and why you chose your answer.
If you chose to switch doors, good job, you just doubled your chances of winning the cash. If you didn’t choose to switch, too bad, you just reduced your chances of winning.
Believe it or not, if you switch your choice, you have a 2/3 chance of winning the money. If you don’t switch, your chances are only 1/3. Don’t believe me? Then read about the “Monty Hall problem” on wikipedia. This type of problem is called a “veridical paradox” as it’s counterintuitive. Anyway, I thought it was a great read. I hope you liked it.
Filed under: Educational, Paradox